U.S. Economic Calendar Event Update – Jan 30
These are the U.S. economic calendar events for Wednesday, January 30, 2013. All times are EST.
MBA Purchase Index for the week ending on 01/26 are scheduled to be released at 7:00 AM. The prior period for MBA Purchase Index had a result of 7%. This event has a low effect on US markets.
ADP Employment Report for Jan are scheduled to be released at 8:15 AM. Analysts are estimating a result of 175K. The prior period for ADP Employment Report had a result of 215K. This event has a low effect on US markets.
GDP for Q4 are scheduled to be released at 8:30 AM. Analysts are estimating a result of 1%. The prior period for GDP had a result of 3.1%. This event has a major effect on US markets.
Chain Deflator for Q4 are scheduled to be released at 8:30 AM. Analysts are estimating a result of 1.6%. The prior period for Chain Deflator had a result of 2.7%. This event has a low effect on US markets.
Crude Inventories for the week ending on 01/26 are scheduled to be released at 10:30 AM. The prior period for Crude Inventories had a result of 2.813. This event has a low effect on US markets.
FOMC Rate Decision for Jan are scheduled to be released at 2:15 PM. Analysts are estimating a result of 0.25%. The prior period for FOMC Rate Decision had a result of 0.25%. This event has a major effect on US markets.
At the release of important events, US equity markets (INDEXSP:.INX) can make major moves. Be sure to keep an eye on S&P (NYSEARCA:SPY), Nasdaq (NYSEARCA:QQQ) and Dow Jones (NYSEARCA:DIA) at the time of announcements.
Here is some more information about the events discussion in this article.
MBA Purchase Index: Gauges demand for mortgage application in the US . Tracking new home mortgages and refinances, MBA Mortgage Applications Survey serves at a current indicator for the US housing market. Growth in mortgages suggests a healthy housing market. Due to the multiplier effect housing has on the rest of the economy, rising activity suggests increased household income and economic expansion. The headline figure is the weekly percentage change in the MBA Mortgage Applications figure. Among the various indices measured in the survey, the purchase index and refinancing index most accurately reflect where the housing market is headed. The purchasing index measures the change in existing home sales in all mortgage applications, while the refinance index measures the mortgage refinancing activity in all mortgage applications.
ADP Employment Report: The Employment Change released by the Automatic Data Processing, Inc is a measure of the change in the number of employed people in the US Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator has positive implications for consumer spending which stimulates economic growth.
GDP: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the the broadest measure of economic activity. Annualized quarterly percent changes in GDP reflect the growth rate of total economic output. The figures can be quite volatile from quarter to quarter. Inventory and net export swings in particular can produce significant volatility in GDP. The final sales figure, which excludes inventories, can sometimes be helpful in identifying underlying growth trends as inventories represent unsold goods, and a large inventory increase will boost GDP but might be indicative of weakness rather than strength. The broad components of GDP are: consumption, investment, net exports, government purchases, and inventories. Consumption is by far the largest component, totalling roughly 2/3rds of GDP.
In addition to the GDP figures, there are GDP deflators, which measure the change in prices in total GDP and for each component. Though the consumer price index is a more closely watched inflation indicator, the GDP deflator is another key inflation measure. Unlike CPI, it has the advantage of not being a fixed basket of goods and services, so that changes in consumption patterns or the introduction of new goods and services will be reflected in the deflator.
With both GDP and the deflator, the market tends to focus on the quarter/quarter change. Year/year changes are also cited frequently, though they do not provide the most timely indications of economic activity or inflation. The bond market often reacts to GDP, though the price moves are typically small, as much of the GDP data is easily predicted using monthly economic releases such as personal consumption, durable goods shipments, construction spending, international trade, and inventories.
Quarterly GDP reports are broken down into three announcements: advance, preliminary, and final. After the final revision, GDP is not revised again until the annual benchmark revisions each July. These revisions can be quite large and usually affect the past fi
Chain Deflator: The Chain Deflator is a key inflation measure included in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Report. In addition to the GDP figures, there are GDP deflators, which measure the change in prices in total GDP and for each of its components. Although the consumer price index is a more closely watched inflation indicator, the Chain Deflator is also a closely watched measure of inflation. Unlike CPI, it has the advantage of not being a fixed basket of goods and services, so changes in consumption patterns or the introduction of new goods and services will be reflected in the Chain Deflator.
Crude Inventories: Measure of inventories of crude oil stored for future use. The figure relies on the Energy Information Administration’s Monthly Crude Oil Report which surveys companies that store 500 or more barrels of crude oil. Because companies with smaller stores are excluded, the figure systematically underestimates actual crude oil stores. Nonetheless, the report is significant as changes in crude oil inventories provide insight into oil demand and prices. A significant decrease in inventories suggests the supply of oil is possibly strained, which puts upward pressure on oil prices. Any increase in oil prices will act as an inflationary pressure as increased oil prices are fed through the economy. But because any affects of Oil Stocks would take some time to feed through the economy, the report typically does not affect the market. The figure is reported monthly, either in thousands of barrels per month or as a percentage change from the previous month.
FOMC Rate Decision: The announcement of whether the Federal Reserve has increased, decreased or maintained the key interest rate. The FOMC meets eight times per year to decide on monetary policy. After each meeting policy decisions are announced. The main task of the FOMC is to set the monetary stance by fixing the overnight borrowing rate, which essentially sets short-term lending rates in the US. Through this mechanism, the FOMC attempts to affect price levels in order to keep inflation within the target range while maintaining stable economic growth and employment.